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Nomura's European Tech Outlook for 2010
Here are the highlights of Nomura's 2010 Euro Tech Outlook:
- The sector is likely to track the wider market in 2010.
- Software offers the most consistent growth opportunities but in many cases has the valuation to match.
- Semiconductors should benefit from ongoing demand recovery, lean inventories, PC recovery and a good outlook for memory.
- Communications equipment is likely to be the laggard with handsets looking a little better, but the outlook for network infrastructure remaining depressed.
- However, Professional services is still looking strong, a positive for Ericsson.
- On the flip side, the outlook for Alcatel-Lucent is deteriorating and 5% margins is pretty much all the company can expect.
Software:
- Software has the best long-term growth rates but at the same time remains the most expensive part of European tech.
- Within the sector there are some stocks that are cheaper than others . Here are a few options.
- 1) Slower growth at a cheap valuation - Sage
- 2) Some growth and a big strong company - SAP
- 3) Fast growth, high valuation but upside to estimates - Autonomy.
Semiconductors:
- Nomura's research team in Asia is now much more bullish in demand for PCs and consequently the outlook for memory (DRAM and NAND).
-There is still plenty of upside in STM and ASML.
Communications Equipment:
- Communications equipment looks like it will continue to lag as a sub sector offering growth opportunities.
- Handset estimates have been upgraded to 10% growth
- Infrastructure is also likely to continue to lag but there is a real growth opportunity in professional services.
- Ericsson is by far the most exposed, with one of the cheapest valuations and most upside.
- Nokia is likely to really run, if it sorts its handset software problems out ,but not until the second half of the year at the earliest.
- On the flip side, the outlook for Alcatel-Lucent is deteriorating , 5% margins is pretty much all the company can expect.







